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    就因为向中国学习,马尔代夫成了西方的眼中钉?

    2018-2-12 14:23| 发布者: Huarenpt| 查看: 3487| 评论: 0|来自: 观察者网

    1.最近,印度洋岛国马尔代夫近来的政治危机吸引了全世界的注意。在马尔代夫最高法院驳回针对前任总统穆罕默德·纳希德(Mohamed Nasheed)的腐败和恐怖主义指控以后,现任总统阿卜杜拉·亚明·阿卜杜勒·加尧姆(Abd ...

    1.

    最近,印度洋岛国马尔代夫近来的政治危机吸引了全世界的注意。在马尔代夫最高法院驳回针对前任总统穆罕默德·纳希德(Mohamed Nasheed)的腐败和恐怖主义指控以后,现任总统阿卜杜拉·亚明·阿卜杜勒·加尧姆(Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom,一下简称“亚明”)也随之“拒绝”了最高法院的判决,并宣布马尔代夫全国进入为期15天的紧急状态。

    马尔代夫现任总统亚明

    此后,反对党领袖、最高法院大法官、司法部负责人等一批重要人物遭到亚明政府逮捕。流亡海外的前总统纳希德在推特上“请求印度派遣由印度军方支持的特使前往马尔代夫,敦促政府释放被逮捕的法官和其他人”,这激起了印度媒体对于出兵干涉的赤裸裸讨论。与此针锋相对,亚明也派出包括经济发展部长在内的特使前往中国等友好国家,旨在“说明”当前马尔代夫的严峻局势。

    威权而亲华的亚明政府、“民主”而亲印的反对派、中国的“一带一路”倡议,印度“看家护院”的冲动、再加上马尔代夫自身的关键战略位置……这些宏大的地缘政治因素和全球战略考量交织在一起,使得国际舆论对马尔代夫隐现的“中印之争”极为热衷,迫不及待地希望马尔代夫成为两个亚洲大国赤裸角力的战场。这种对于“大国博弈”的关注牵自然可以吸引眼球,但是却可能遮蔽了一个更为关键的问题——对于以马尔代夫为代表的海洋小岛国对于自身发展模式的选择和争论。

    拥有42万人口的马尔代夫位于印度西南方向,由1200多个珊瑚礁岛组成,其中202个岛屿有人居住,是亚洲陆地面积最小的国家。马尔代夫的地理特点使其更易受到海平面上升的威胁,在全球气候异常变化中首当其冲成为受害者。在这种情况下,马尔代夫领导人面临的最大问题就是选择什么样的发展模式。马尔代夫发展模式的选择涉及到两个最为关键的目标:首先,这种模式必须满足这个并不富裕国家当前面临的尖锐社会、经济发展需求;其次,这种发展模式也需要在更长的时间维度上解决威胁国家存亡的自然环境问题。

    500

    2.

    2008年,作为唯一候选人而连任总统30年的政治强人穆蒙·阿卜杜勒·加尧姆(Maumoon Abdul Gayoom,简称“加尧姆”)【注】在第一次竞争性选举中就被长期以“异见人士”身份为人所知的纳希德击败。作为马尔代夫历史上第一位民选总统,又是最积极反对加尧姆的“民主斗士”,纳希德可以说一登场就自带了“政治正确”的光环,因此受到西方社会明星般的礼遇和追捧。

    500

    马尔代夫前总统加尧姆

    曾在英国留学的纳希德一直是西方的拥趸,这一点也体现在他选择的发展模式中:一方面,在竞选时他就陈诺实施自由市场和私有化,建立开放的媒体,发展公民社会,继续发展旅游业,并且欢迎更多国际非政府组织的到来,以此激活马尔代夫发展,解决面临的经济、社会需求;另一方面,纳希德顺着西方的“政治正确”成了著名的“环保总统”,在联合国气候大会上发表了声情并茂的演讲,率领副总统和内阁召开“水下内阁会议”以警世人,还把零碳排放和太阳能当作马尔代夫发展目标,以此树立良好的国际形象,说服西方对马尔代夫进行援助,缓解马尔代夫面临的生态环境威胁。

    身披“民主”、“环保”的模范生光环,纳希德化身成为联合国气候对话的道德领袖,成了西方媒体和政界的宠儿。2009年,纳希德被美国《时代》杂志评为“2009年十大环保人士”之一。2010年,《新闻周刊(Newsweek)》也将他评为“全球十佳领导人”。2011年,时任英国首相卡梅伦曾表示,如果让他自由邀请五位领导人参加私人聚会,除了美国前总统克林顿、时任总统奥巴马、法国总统萨科齐、新西兰总理约翰·基之外,他还将出人意料的邀请小国马尔代夫的总统纳希德。此外,纳希德还在《纽约时报》开了专栏,推出了强调环保的纪录片《岛国总统》……

    然而,徒有光鲜亮丽的形象和动人的言辞并不解决实际问题,虽然纳希德在西方广受追捧,但他面对实际问题却显得束手无策,甚至有时候适得其反。例如,人多地少的马尔代夫土地资源本来就高度紧张,但是纳希德力推的太阳能发电却需要占据大量珍贵的土地资源,推进过程阻力重重。再如,马尔代夫高度依赖旅游业,但是旅游带动的空运、水运又是碳排放大户,这使得纳希德显得首鼠两端,不敢大刀阔斧发展旅游业。更加不巧的是,2008年上台的纳希德刚好碰上了全球金融危机,重创了马尔代夫赖以为继的旅游业,经济陷入衰退,赤字也逐渐恶化。在这种情况下,纳希德此后几年间接受了国际货币基金组织(IMF)的多项改革计划,其中就包括降低薪水、提高电价、减少福利、提高利率的措施等不讨喜的改革措施。

    一边是攀升的失业率、高企的通货膨胀和无法得到满足的基础设施需求,另一边是不切实际的环保要求、杯水车薪的减排目标和大而无当的高端宣传,难怪马尔代夫民众批评纳希德“除了会抗议,没有什么治国经验”。由于不满纳希德的治理,2012年1月马尔代夫首都马累接连大规模爆发抗议活动。2月,部分军队和警察也发生哗变。在这种情况下,纳希德不得不宣布辞职。显然,纳希德的“环保”、“民主”、“改革”主张虽然动听,也得到了西方的赞誉,但是他没能解决民众面临的更紧迫难题,更无法独立自主的解决马尔代夫面临的生存危机,因此这位“西方宠儿”总统选择的道路在马尔代夫难以为继实属情理之中。

    500

    2012年,马尔代夫反对派支持者在首都马累的共和广场举行抗议活动

    3.

    2013年,马尔代夫再次迎来了大选。在经过两轮形势错综复杂的选举后,亚明战胜了同时参选的纳希德成为马尔代夫新总统。亚明曾经在多家大型公司担任高管,有丰富的实际管理经验和项目运营经验。与强调零碳排放、太阳能、限制旅游业以此博得西方赞赏和援助的纳希德相比,亚明一上台就强调大规模旅游业(mass tourism)和基础设施的跨越式发展(mega-developments),以此带给马尔代夫年轻一代以真正的希望,并使这个岛国能真正独立自主的应对气候变化。

    亚明强调要把马尔代夫从纳希德手中的“环保而偏僻的印度洋一隅”建设成为坐拥新首都、高科技、自贸区、高教园的新型智能岛国。他强调,马尔代夫经济体量极小,满打满算仅占全球碳排放的0.003%,几乎可以忽略不计,因此在这样一个弹丸小国搞低碳经济除了作秀和博取同情以外毫无价值。因此,他冒着国内反对派的压力和西方媒体的质疑把纳希德的低碳政策扫进垃圾堆。自此,亚明也就开启了他的“政治不正确”征程。

    基础设施是制约马尔代夫发展的瓶颈和最大挑战。比起离日常生活十万八千里的碳排放问题,普通马尔代夫民众关心卫生间、下水管道、垃圾处理、日常出行这些看起来不值得一提,但是却实实在在影响他们生活质量的基本问题。此前,在马尔代夫200多个有人居住的岛屿中,只有31个有完整的下水管道系统,其中仅有6个有固废处理系统,而由于规模成本制约,这些小岛根本不可能集中建起完善的环境卫生系统,因此很多小岛其实环境堪忧,对生态破坏严重。

    面对这种情况,务实的亚明给出了一个颇具创意的方案:通过“异地安置”把偏远小岛居民集中到少数几个大岛,再通过集中建设改善大岛的基础设施提高居民生活质量,再把无人小岛高价出租到专业开发商手中,兼顾环保进行成熟的旅游开发。如果顺利实施,亚明此举可谓一石三鸟:首先,通过集中安置和大规模基建解决了小岛居民的生活困难问题;其次,通过吸引开发商解决了基础设施资金来源和小岛环境保护问题;第三,通过集中安置和发展旅游解决了居民的生计和国家可持续发展的问题。这样一来,马尔代夫就可以增强经济基础,不依靠国外援助就能自主应对气候变化带来的威胁。

    虽然这个计划乍看起来颇为合理,但是在西方的标准下却因为牵涉到“非自愿”拆迁、新增碳排放、举债大搞基建而显得“政治不正确”,因此也就难以获得西方的支持。在这种情况下,基建能力强、融资能力强、又不附加政治条件的中国就成了亚明自然的选择。毫无意外,用于连结首都马累和机场岛的中马友谊大桥、用于发展旅游业的易卜拉欣-纳西尔国际机场改扩建项目和北马累环礁旅游岛项目、用于异地集中安置移民的胡鲁马累7000套保障性住房项目、胡鲁马岛累电厂项目全部由中国融资建设。与此同时,也许是出于对中国发展成果和发展道路的认同,2017年12月亚明与中国签订了马尔代夫历史上第一个自贸协定,使其成为继巴基斯坦之后,第二个与中国签署自贸协定的南亚国家。此后,亚明还顶着印度施加的压力,在访华期间同中方签订了《推进“一带一路”建设的谅解备忘录》。

    500

    2017年12月,习近平主席在北京接见亚明总统

    在亚明看来,中国的资本、中国的能力、中国的游客都是马尔代夫发展过程中不可取代的资源,更是帮助他实现跨越式发展的助力器。比起西方、印度高高在上的“环保”、“民主”叙事,中国实打实的协助才是真正能帮助马尔代夫同时解决眼前问题和长远问题的良药。

    4.

    在中马两国的共同努力下,困扰马尔代夫人民多年的基础设施瓶颈已经初步得到解决,马尔代夫的发展也已经显现出新的面貌。但是,由于马尔代夫社会治理基础薄弱,体制机制极不健全,大规模的建设过程中难免出现各式各样的争议和问题,包括玩忽职守、裙带关系、贪污腐败等。而作为总统,亚明在这个过程中也绝非无懈可击——他时常诉诸强力机构、时常诉诸民粹主义,有时甚至不惜利用伊斯兰保守主义推动议程。在对峙双方多个回合政治缠斗之下,狗血剧情接二连三,地缘政治阴谋论甚嚣尘上,而这场危机的本质——“发展模式之争”却反而越发模糊。

    显而易见,“威权vs民主”,“破坏生态vs保护环境”,“中国vs西方/印度”的简单化叙事难以抓住这场马尔代夫这场发展模式之争的实质。亚明选择中国,而非西方或者印度很大程度上并不却决于他的个人好恶,甚至也不缺取决于他的地缘政治考量,而是取决于他如何权衡发展模式的选择——这场马尔代夫政治危机向我们昭示,在现行的国际舆论条件下,虽然中国模式能够高效解决基础设施、经济发展和减贫民生等困扰广大发展中国家已久的问题,但是在执行过程中却容易沦为被国际舆论群起而攻之的对象。是要实实在在的解决本地问题,还是要在西方获得鲜花、掌声和庇护(以及美金)?这个问题看起来简单,真正回答起来却并不容易做出的选择。

    最后用习近平总书记在十九大开幕式上的讲话节选结束此文:中国特色社会主义进入新时代,意味着中国特色社会主义道路、理论、制度、文化不断发展,拓展了发展中国家走向现代化的途径,给世界上那些既希望加快发展又希望保持自身独立性的国家和民族提供了全新选择,为解决人类问题贡献了中国智慧和中国方案。

    本文系观察者网独家稿件,文章内容纯属作者个人观点,不代表平台观点,未经授权,不得转载,否则将追究法律责任。关注观察者网微信guanchacn,每日阅读趣味文章。

    【注】现任总统亚明的姓也是“加尧姆”,他是前任总统加尧姆同母异父的弟弟,而老加尧姆一共有8个妻子,25个子女。

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